While Pagano will be a change in both style and substance, he certainly has his strengths. And yes, he is one of the best defensive minds in the sport. Chuck Pagano will bring a different flair to the defense Even if the numbers nerds are right and their 19.9% turnover rate does come down a bit, there are reasons to believe they could still be dominant – and maybe even better. So if key defensive players miss significant time, the defense as a whole will slip, and the road to a repeat NFC North title will be undoubtedly tougher.īut if Matt Nagy’s cautious approach to preseason yields another year of good health, don’t expect the defense to make the nose dive some expect. While Khalil Mack, Eddie Jackson and Bryce Callahan all suffered injuries, none of them were out for more than a handful of games (although, it should be noted, the latter two missed the playoff game). In 2018, the team as a whole stayed remarkably healthy: Chicago finished third-to-last in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost statistic. There is a clear avenue for the Bears defense to regress, and that is through injuries. It’s almost like some of these guys forget football is played by actual human beings and not a bunch of numbers on a spreadsheet. If you follow the Chicago Bears, you’ve undoubtedly seen at least one person talk about how the defense is a “prime candidate for regression.” Talking heads and analysts will beat you over the head with reasons why: Takeaway rates and defensive touchdown numbers fluctuate year to year, history shows teams rarely lead the league in DVOA in consecutive seasons, yada yada yada.
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